onsdag 6 mars 2013

Gästinlägg: Angående marathon under 2 timmar

För  relativt länge sedan (2010) skrev jag en artikel om när det första marathonloppt under 2 timmar kommer att springas. Jag hävdade då och hävdar fortfarande att det kommer att ske i Berlin år 2039.
Den har publicerat lite här och var - Petra Månströms marathonblogg, boken Idrottens olösta mysterier, i omarbetad version i den kommande boken "Kondition och uthållighet" och även översatts till danska. Efter den danska publiceringen (sommar 2012) fick jag det här mailet som jag tänkte kunde vara trevligt att dela med sig av.

Hi Mikael,

With pleasure I have just read your article about the race for sub 2 hours on the marathon in Marathon Magasinet. I think it is a very exiting and interesting article.

It is interesting to see when the 2 hours will be broken. I'm very certain it will be broken - and sooner than we might think. The reason for that is the new generation of especially young Kenyans coming to the marathon scene. We got the current record by Patrick Makau who humiliated Haile in Berlin. And Wilson Kipsang went also as fast just a month after Berlin in Frankfurt. Further, Geoffrey Mutai and Moses Mosop beat the living daylights out of the course in Boston (I recognize it was downwind and not an official time, but that was fast!). Also, Mosop broke the 25,000m track record in Eugene last year and if I'm not mistaken he is going for it in Rotterdam this month. And in London you'll have lots of Kenyans hammering at each other for an Olympic spot. I wouldn't be surprised to see a new world record this spring.

What I'm trying to say - and what I think one should take into account when analyzing and predicting the day for a sub 2 hour marathon is the new generation of "young guns" coming directly to the marathons, and not from the track when they no longer can keep up on the track (like Haile and Targat did). I think there is a new agenda for the marathons on the men's side. There are many who are close to the world record and there is so much prestige and money in breaking it. And it motivates!
The new breed of champions are also more aggressive in their approach to the marathon. They are not afraid of the distance. They dare take the race on and manhandle it. Like the late Sammy Wanjiru did in a fantastic display of frontrunning in Beijing in 2008. I think many Kenyans have been inspired by Wanjiru, and that inspiration, I believe, will push times towards 2 hours relative quickly the coming years. Sub 2.03 this year I predict.

Just a thought of mine on a very interesting subject.

Best regards,

Jesper Pedersen

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