För relativt länge sedan (2010) skrev jag en artikel om när det första marathonloppt under 2 timmar kommer att springas. Jag hävdade då och hävdar fortfarande att det kommer att ske i Berlin år 2039.
Den har publicerat lite här och var - Petra Månströms marathonblogg, boken Idrottens olösta mysterier, i omarbetad version i den kommande boken "Kondition och uthållighet" och även översatts till danska. Efter den danska publiceringen (sommar 2012) fick jag det här mailet som jag tänkte kunde vara trevligt att dela med sig av.
With pleasure I have just read your article about the race for sub 2
hours on the marathon in Marathon Magasinet. I think it is a very
exiting and interesting article.
It is interesting to see when the 2 hours will be broken. I'm very
certain it will be broken - and sooner than we might think. The reason
for that is the new generation of especially young Kenyans coming to the
marathon scene. We got the current record by Patrick Makau who
humiliated Haile in Berlin. And Wilson Kipsang went also as fast just a
month after Berlin in Frankfurt. Further, Geoffrey Mutai and Moses Mosop
beat the living daylights out of the course in Boston (I recognize it
was downwind and not an official time, but that was fast!). Also, Mosop
broke the 25,000m track record in Eugene last year and if I'm not
mistaken he is going for it in Rotterdam this month. And in London
you'll have lots of Kenyans hammering at each other for an Olympic spot.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a new world record this spring.
What I'm trying to say - and what I think one should take into account
when analyzing and predicting the day for a sub 2 hour marathon is the
new generation of "young guns" coming directly to the marathons, and not
from the track when they no longer can keep up on the track (like Haile
and Targat did). I think there is a new agenda for the marathons on the
men's side. There are many who are close to the world record and there
is so much prestige and money in breaking it. And it motivates!
The new breed of champions are also more aggressive in their approach to
the marathon. They are not afraid of the distance. They dare take the
race on and manhandle it. Like the late Sammy Wanjiru did in a fantastic
display of frontrunning in Beijing in 2008. I think many Kenyans have
been inspired by Wanjiru, and that inspiration, I believe, will push
times towards 2 hours relative quickly the coming years. Sub 2.03 this
year I predict.
Just a thought of mine on a very interesting subject.